Sunday, October 31, 2010

Nightclub evacuated after fire breaks out


More than 500 teenagers had to leave a nightclub in Cookstown, County Tyrone after a fire broke out in two buildings on Saturday night.
The alarm was raised at about 2200 BST at the Clubland nightclub.
Six fire appliances were used to bring the blaze which had spread to an oil tank under control.
Station Commander Paul McCloskey said early indications are that the fire was started deliberately.
He said it was "quite dynamic because a lot of things happened quickly for a while".
"There were 500 kids in the disco, there were two buildings on fire and we subsequently found out afterwards that between two buildings there was another alleyway and in that there was bins and there was a heating oil tank which was involved in the fire as well," he said.
"The Clubland staff and the police managed to evacuate the club quickly and safely."

ICC upholds Pakistan suspensions


ICC upholds Pakistan suspensions


The International Cricket Council has upheld the provisional suspensions of two of the Pakistan players at the centre of spot-fixing allegations.
Salman and Mohammad aamir suspensions

Istanbul Rocked By Suspected Suicide Bomb

At least 15 people have been injured in a suspected suicide bomb attack in Istanbul's main square.  

The blast rocked the city's central Taksim Square, Turkish television channel NTV reported.
The suspected bomber targeted a police vehicle, NTV said.
TV footage showed police and ambulances rushing to the scene.

Journalist Dorian Jones, reporting from the square, said there was a loud explosion followed by gunfire.

"I can see what appears to be the remains of one body outside a police bus," Jones told Sky News.

"In Taksim Square, which is at the heart of Istanbul, there is always a police presence of about three or four police buses.

"It appears someone carrying a bomb tried to get on one of the buses.

"The bomb went off prematurely and it appears the person carrying it was killed."

All of the injured have been taken to hospital. A security cordon was thrown round the area and the nearby pedestrianised Istiklal street was closed off.

Members of the separatist rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and extreme left-wing groups have carried out bomb attacks in the past in Istanbul.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Lebanon claims world's largest glass of wine

Seeking to brush off its political troubles and burnish its reputation for good living, Lebanon has claimed a record for the world's biggest glass of wine.
Organisers of a wine festival in Beirut poured around 100 bottles of Lebanese wine into the giant glass, 2.4 metres high and 1.65 metres wide.
"The previous record was set in Portugal 12 years ago, and I'm proud to announce that Lebanon has achieved a new record," Guinness World Records adjudicator Liz Smith said at the festival on Friday evening (local time).
The size of the glass meant that even with dozens of bottles poured in, it was not even a quarter full.
And no-one appeared in a rush to drink from the cocktail of red, white and rose wines which were sloshed in with abandon.
Organisers said winemakers from across the country had contributed their produce as part of a campaign to promote Lebanese wine - half of which they said is exported.
"This glass brings together all the wine producers [in Lebanon]," said Nada Farah.
The wine glass may be a useful accompaniment for Lebanon's other forays into culinary extremes.
In recent years it has claimed the world's biggest servings of kibbeh and tabbouleh, traditional meat and salad dishes, and the biggest bowl of hummus.

Portugal set for tough austerity budget

Portugal’s minority government and main opposition party have reached an agreement that will ensure the approval of a tough austerity budget, easing concern over a potential sovereign debt crisis.

Portugal's minority Socialist government and its centre-right opposition PSD reached a deal late Friday that will ensure parliament adopts an austerity budget for 2011, a PSD spokesman told AFP.

The agreement will see the PSD abstain when the budget comes up for parliamentary debate on November 3, said PSD Social Democrat party spokesman Rui Baptista.

The government needs at least a PSD abstention as all other opposition parties have said they would vote against the measure.

"There is an agreement which will be formalised on Saturday in the parliament," Baptista said.

Friday, October 29, 2010

Indonesia tsunami: baby found alive in storm drain offers fresh hope

News of a two-month-old baby found alive in a storm drain after the Indonesia tsunami offers a rare bit of good news since the tsunami swamped several the remote Mentawi Islands on Monday.
Earlier in the week, another child, 18 months old, was found alive in a tree. Both were found without their parents, whom officials assume were swept away in the 10-foot wave that swept through the villages.

By Friday the official death toll had already hit at least 400. That number is expected to rise as more rescuers arrive on the scene and more information becomes available.
IN PICTURES: Indonesia tsunami
The islands are accessible only by land and air, so relief efforts have been slow. Helicopters are able to carry only limited amounts of aid, and bad weather prevented boats, which can carry more supplies, from departing immediately. The first responders were surfers (the Mentawi Islands are a popular surfing destination) and small organizations already in the area.
Many of the organizations and people able to provide the most relief were several hundred miles away. On Wednesday, although significant amounts of relief supplies had been gathered, much of it was still sitting on shore on the less remote islands or on boats waiting in their harbors, The Christian Science Monitor's correspondent in Indonesia reported.
The lack of warning of the approaching tsunami, set off by the eruption of Mt. Merapi, has prompted questions about the the costly warning system installed after the 2004 tsunami that killed more than 100,000 Indonesians. It failed to sound any sort of alarm. Indonesian officials have said that the buoys that make up the warning system were vandalized, the Monitor reported Thursday.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Argentina enters new political era as Kirchner dies

BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Hundreds of Argentines waited in line on Thursday to pay tribute to Nestor Kirchner, the powerful former leader whose death robbed President Cristina Fernandez of her husband and most trusted ally.
Argentines bid farewell to Néstor Kirchner, the former president who handed power to his wife, Cristina Fernández, in 2007 but continued to call the shots.
Kirchner, 60, was widely seen as the most influential figure in his wife's government, which has maintained the same statist economic measures that supporters say lifted the country out of the doldrums after a 2001-2002 crisis.

The combative Kirchner, who died of a heart attack on Wednesday, was widely expected to run for a second term in a presidential election next October. His death increases the possibility that Fernandez, who has higher approval ratings than her late husband, will seek re-election.
Local financial markets, which were closed on Wednesday for a public holiday, were expected to open higher following gains by Argentine assets traded abroad.
Investors saw Kirchner as hostile to business. But his departure from Argentina's fractious political scene heightens uncertainties before the 2011 vote.
"Nestor Kirchner was viewed as the builder of alliances ... and his passing will create a void that may be difficult to fill," Credit Suisse economist Carola Sandy said. "As such, (the president) might have a very difficult time maintaining the current Kirchner coalition and the support of the unions."
Analysts say Fernandez -- who, like her husband is known for antagonizing business leaders and pushing policies that frustrate investors -- could adopt a more conciliatory approach in a bid to shore up her support.
But she will likely maintain the couple's small circle of advisers and Kirchner's death could boost her approval ratings as voters recall the boom years of his 2003-2007 presidency when South America's No. 2 economy expanded rapidly.
Some supporters camped overnight in the square facing the pink presidential palace, where regional leaders and political figures were due to attend a wake on Thursday. Ordinary Argentines started queuing up to pay their last respects.
"After General Peron, he's the best president we ever had," said housewife Estela Orellano, 56, referring to the former strongman whose figure still looms large in the nation's political life as the namesake of the Peronist party.
Tens of thousands of people packed the square into the early hours to show support for Fernandez, some tying bunches of roses, flags and condolence letters to the railings.
Posters carrying the slogan "Nestor forever, hang in there Cristina" appeared across the capital, Buenos Aires.
Argentina, a leading agricultural exporter, has benefited from a boom in commodities prices since its economic debacle nine years ago that plunged millions of Argentines into poverty and prompted a massive default and sharp devaluation.
But critics reviled Kirchner's interventionist economic policies and said he failed to put Argentina on a path toward sustainable growth or tackle high inflation.
Opponents of the power couple bristled at their outspoken attacks on companies, journalists and political rivals.

UK, France, Germany oppose rise in EU spending

Britain, France and Germany said Thursday they oppose a hefty rise in the European Union's 2011 budget, insisting that austerity in member countries should trigger moderation in EU outlays.

Britain, France and Germany said Thursday they oppose a hefty rise in the European Union's 2011 budget, insisting that austerity in member countries should trigger moderation in EU outlays.
British Prime Minister David Cameron was backed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy in an EU summit confrontation with Parliament President Jerzy Buzek on the EU's budget.
Cameron is pushing through deep cuts in British public spending and insisted a proposal to raise the EU's 2011 budget by 5.9 percent over this year "is completely unacceptable."
Buzek said, however, that more money is needed because the EU is getting "new responsibilities with every new treaty," the latest of which came into force last year.
Buzek addressed the EU summit leaders.
Afterward, he acknowledged that "those who took the floor took the position of David Cameron," but said they didn't represent a majority of the council.
In defending spending cuts at home totaling 81 billion pounds ($128 billion), Cameron told British lawmakers on the eve of the EU summit that "the greatest priority for Britain should be to fight very hard to get the EU budget under control."
The EU budget for 2011 is now projected to total euro142.6 billion ($198 billion). Buzek said a 5.9 percent increase was not "unreasonable" and would bring new spending to benefit research, energy, environment, education and other areas.
The EU budget still accounts for only 1 percent of EU GDP, a share that has remained unchanged in 20 years, but the EU has gone from 12 to 27 members in that time and its responsibilities have grown.
In negotiations to date, Britain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland and Sweden have insisted the EU budget increase be limited to 2.9 percent.
In the past, Britain has often resisted hefty rises in EU spending and once vetoed a budget.
But under EU rules that took effect this year, a veto is no longer possible.
Budgets are now voted on and under the EU's complex weighted voting system. Officials say Britain and its allies need more votes to stop the 5.9 percent increase in 2011 outlays.

Actor who played Danno `Hawaii Five-0' dies at 72

Stage and screen actor James MacArthur, who played "Danno" in the original version of television's "Hawaii Five-0," died Thursday at age 72.
MacArthur's agent, Richard Lewis, said the actor died in Florida of "natural causes," but no direct cause was specified.
In a career that spanned more than four decades, MacArthur was most recognized for his role as Detective Danny "Danno" Williams on "Hawaii Five-0," which aired from 1968 to 1980. Episodes often ended with detective Steve McGarret, the lead character, uttering what became a pop culture catch phrase: "Book 'em, Danno."
Jack Lord, who starred as McGarret, died in 1998.
MacArthur quit the role of McGarret's sidekick a year before the program's final season.
"Quite frankly, I grew bored," he explained on his website. "The stories became more bland and predictable and presented less and less challenge to me as an actor."
"Hawaii Five-O," one of the longest running crime shows in TV history with 278 episodes, was shot on location in the Hawaiian islands. It was the first Hawaii-based national TV series.
The drama has been remade by CBS with a new cast this season.
MacArthur, born Dec. 8, 1937, seemed destined to become an actor. He was the adopted son of playwright Charles MacArthur and Helen Hayes, an award-winning actress often referred to as "First Lady of the American Theatre." Silent film star Lillian Gish was his godmother.
"They did teach me a lot about the theatre just through my life with them," he said of his parents in a 1957 interview in Teen Life magazine. "They never pushed me in any direction. Any major decision has always been my own to make."
James MacArthur made his stage debut at age 8 in a summer stock production of "The Corn is Green."
His breakout role was in the 1957 "Climax!" television series production of "The Young Stranger," in which he starred as the 17-year-old son of a movie executive who has a run-in with the law.
He entered Harvard that same year, but dropped out in his sophomore year to pursue an acting career.
As a young actor, MacArthur appeared in the Walt Disney movies "Kidnapped," "Third Man on the Mountain," "Swiss Family Robinson" and "The Light in the Forest."
He also had roles in "The Interns, "Spencer's Mountain," "Battle of the Bulge" and "Hang 'Em High," as well as many guest roles on TV series such as "Gunsmoke."
He performed in many stage plays, including the lead role of Hildy Johnson in a 1981 production of "The Front Page," which was co-written by his father in the late 1920s, at the Stanford Community Theatre in Palo Alto, Calif.
His live acting career won him the 1961 Theatre World Award for best new actor for his performance in "Invitation to a March."
MacArthur said that one of his favorite "Hawaii Five-O" episodes was a 1975 segment called "Retire in Sunny Hawaii Forever" because it marked one of the rare times that he worked on screen with his mother. Hayes played Danno's Aunt Clara, who visits Hawaii and helps the detectives solve a murder.
Asked by the Hawaii Star Bulletin newspaper in 2003 about his fondest memories about working on "Hawaii Five-O," MacArthur replied: "Living in Hawaii."

Indonesian tsunami zone welcomes aid shipments


Relief efforts have been stepped up in Indonesia as three aid ships reached the worst-hit parts of the island chain devastated by Monday's tsunami.
Rescue teams are now at work on North Pagai island in the remote Mentawai Islands off western Sumatra.
More than 340 people are known to have died. Hundreds are still missing.
Indonesia's president has visited the islands, which were inundated after a 7.7-magnitude undersea earthquake triggered the tsunami three days ago.
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono cut short a trip to Vietnam to oversee the rescue effort, flying in a helicopter loaded with food and other basic necessities to the remote and inaccessible islands.
There he met both survivors and local officials, promising the central government would help West Sumatra's government to build temporary homes, health facilities and schools, his spokesman said.
The aid effort comes as Indonesia struggles with the devastation caused by this week's eruption of Mount Merapi in central Java, which killed more than 30 people.
Villages flattened
Local officials say most of the villages hit by the tsunami have been reached, with victims from the worst-hit areas being buried in mass graves.
But almost 400 remain unaccounted for, and rescuers are now working on the assumption that a large number of those missing will not be found alive, having been washed out to sea by the wave.
No warning
The relief effort was limited, said Hartje Robert Winerungan, a spokesman for the National Disaster Management Agency, as helicopters and aid ships were taking hours to reach affected areas.
n December 2004, a 9.1-magnitude quake off the coast of Aceh triggered a tsunami in the Indian Ocean that killed a quarter of a million people in 13 countries including Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.
Sikakap hospital
Hundreds of injured survivors crowd into makeshift hospital; several villages nearby completely flattened
Macaronis resort
Villas destroyed; only the main building is still standing, which owner Mark Loughran said "saved everybody from being swept away"
Muntei Baru Baru
Entire village flattened, including 70 houses, a school and a church; dozens of victims buried in mass grave
Sabeugungung
Village completely destroyed, with 50 reported dead and 150 missing
Bosua
Some 10 people reported dead and 80 houses destroyed




Death Toll from Earthquake, Tsunami, Volcano in Indonesia Tops 340

Disaster officials in Indonesia say 311 bodies have been recovered from an earthquake and tsunami near Sumatra, while more than 30 people are confirmed dead in a volcanic eruption on the island of Java.  
Another 372 people are still missing after a three-meter high tsunami washed away whole villages on Monday in the remote Mentawai islands, off Sumatra's western coast.  
Bad weather prevented most rescuers and relief supplies from reaching the scene until Wednesday.
Questions are being raised about whether the country's early warning system failed to alert the residents.  The system was installed after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami which killed 230,000 people, about half of them in Indonesia's Aceh province.
About 1,300 kilometers to the east in central Java, disaster officials are examining the extent of the damage from Tuesday's eruption of Mount Merapi, Indonesia's most active volcano.
The dead include an elderly man known as the mountain's spiritual gatekeeper.
Almost 30,000 people were evacuated from the slopes of the volcano before the eruption, but many of them have lost their homes.  Authorities say more eruptions are still possible.
Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono cut short a visit to Vietnam to oversee rescue efforts. 
Indonesia straddles several fault lines that make the vast island chain vulnerable to volcanic and seismic activity.  
Mount Merapi, whose name means "mountain of fire," last erupted in 2006, killing two people.  A similar eruption in 1994 killed at least 60 people, and a 1930 eruption killed 1,300.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

WikiLeaks Docs: Iraq Torture on Obama's Watch?

President Obama stepped into the White House pledging to end George W. Bush's gloves-off approach to interrogations and detention - but a flood of leaked documents suggests that some old habits were hard to break. 

Field reports from the Iraq war published by WikiLeaks show that, despite Obama's public commitment to eschew torture, U.S. forces turned detainees over to Iraqi forces even after signs of abuse. 

Documents also show that U.S. interrogators continued to question Iraqi detainees, some of whom were still recovering from injuries or whose wounds were still visible after being held by Iraqi security forces. 

"We have not turned a blind eye," U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said Monday, noting that one of the reasons why U.S. troops were still in Iraq was to carry out human rights training with Iraqi security forces. "Our troops were obligated to report abuses to appropriate authorities and to follow up, and they did so in Iraq." 

Crowley added, "If there needs to be an accounting, first and foremost there needs to be an accounting by the Iraqi government itself, and how it has treated its own citizens." 


Obama signed three executive orders shortly after taking office, vowing to return America to the "moral high ground" in the war on terrorism. 

The implication was that the United States would do more to make sure terror suspects weren't tortured or abused - either at the hands of U.S. forces or by governing authorities to whom the detainees were handed over for detention or interrogation. 

WikiLeaks recently published almost 400,000 U.S. military logs, mainly written by soldiers on the ground, detailing daily carnage in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion: detainees abused by Iraqi forces, insurgent bombings, sectarian executions and civilians shot at checkpoints by U.S. troops. 

In one leaked document from a U.S. military intelligence report filed Feb. 9, 2009 - just weeks after Obama ordered U.S. personnel to comply with the Geneva Conventions - an Iraqi says he was detained by coalition forces at his Baghdad home and told he would be sent to the Iraqi army if he didn't cooperate. According to the document, the detainee was then handed over to Iraqis where he said he was beaten and given electric shocks. 

U.S. interrogators also cleared detainees for questioning, despite signs that they had suffered abuse from Iraqi security forces, the documents show. 

One report by a U.S. interrogation detention team based in Baghdad on April 2, 2009, summarizes claims made by a prisoner who said he was hog tied and beaten with a shovel as part of dayslong torture ordeal at the hands of the Iraqi army. The report noted he had a catalog of "minor injuries," including "rope burns on the back of his legs and a possible busted ear drum." 

A second report from April 2009 describes an Iraqi detainee as being covered in bruises and a scar from being bludgeoned with a pickax. 

In both cases, the men were still cleared for U.S. interrogations, which international lawyers say is a violation of the Geneva Conventions. 

A fourth report in May of 2009 goes even farther. "There are indications of abuse. Detainee has been medically cleared for interrogation," the document reads. 

The field reports also showed that there were signs of abuse upon regular inspections of Iraqi police stations and holding facilities, raising questions about whether detainees were still turned over to the same authorities. 

A U.S. military police brigade filed a report in May last year saying they had discovered two wounded Iraqi prisoners, one of whom said he had been so badly beaten he was urinating blood. An American officer tried to get the men some medical attention, but the Iraqis allegedly refused. 

One report, filed in September of 2009, described how American forces inspecting an Iraqi army facility found a detainee with two black eyes, scabs, bruises, and what the report described as a neck that had turned "red/yellow." 

The report said the detainee was given electric shocks to elicit a confession. The Iraqis claimed he suffered the injuries while trying to escape. 

The Pentagon has condemned WikiLeaks for publishing the documents, saying that U.S. and Iraqi lives could be put at risk - an allegation that WikiLeaks has dismissed. On Monday, founder Julian Assange defended his decision, swatting away suggestions that the leaked intelligence was of historical interest. 

"Certainly for Iraqis this war is not history," said Assange. 

Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki on Saturday attacked the leak as an attempt to malign him and stir tension. 

While there's no proof in any of the files that the U.S. or its allies directly mistreated detainees, there were at least four allegations where coalition troops were accused of prisoner abuse after Obama signed his executive order. 

One of those incidents occurred last year in Mosul, Iraq, when a soldier allegedly choked a detainee and threatened to kill his family. A fifth report states that a detainee was "kicked around for several moments" while awaiting transfer from U.S. custody. 

In Washington, the Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Obama's 2009 executive order banning torture resulted in any different instructions to U.S. forces in Iraq. 

"This is official evidence that there was a cover-up of crimes, either by turning suspects over or torturing them directly," Dan Ellsberg, who is credited for leaking the 1971 Pentagon Papers that exposed secrets about the Vietnam War, told The Associated Press on Monday night. 

But Ellsberg said he wasn't sure the leak would have much of an impact - either in Iraq or in the United States. Coverage of the documents has been widespread in Europe where public opinion against the Iraq war swelled for years. 

"The truth is the Pentagon Papers did affect public opinion. It did not affect Nixon's policy," Ellsberg said. "I don't have confidence that even a massive change of public opinion will have an effect, but even if there is a small chance it could change policy it is worth it." 

UK Economic Growth Rate Beats Expectations

The British economy grew by 0.8% in the three months to September - double the rate that had been predicted by analysts.

A surge in construction helped boost gross domestic product (GDP), with the sector growing by 4% during the third quarter.
The key services sector -which includes hotels, transport and financial services, and accounts for three quarters of the economy - expanded by 0.6%.
Overall industrial production also grew by 0.6%, despite a slowdown in farming and mining.
The latest GDP figure marks a fourth consecutive quarter of growth since the recession - but it is well down on the 1.2% rise between April and June.
However, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) points out that bad weather at the start of the year contributed to a bounce back in the second quarter.
If this seasonal factor is taken into account, the underlying growth between July and September was actually similar to that of the second quarter, it says.
Economic growth over the past six months has now hit 2%, which is the fastest pace of expansion seen over two consecutive quarters for 10 years.
The Chancellor George Osborne said this should underpin confidence in the economy.
"The ONS believe that the underlying growth in the third quarter was 'broadly similar' to the strong second quarter," he said.
"This gives me confidence that although global economic conditions remain choppy, a steady recovery is under way."
However, shadow chancellor Alan Johnson warned that people should "not get carried away" by the latest numbers as they still reveal that the rate of growth fell by 33%.
"I think what this shows is that there's still momentum coming from the measures that took the UK out of recession and back into growth," he told Sky News.
"We haven't yet seen the effects of £6bn taken out of the economy, which the Government announced in May, and we haven't seen the effects of the austerity measures announced in the Spending Review."
Speaking on Sky News after the GDP figure release, HSBC's head of global research, Bronwyn Curtis, said: "Can the economy take the cuts? We don't know.
"If we continue to see numbers like this, it looks as though we can.
"I suspect, though, that we will see that falling away in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year," she added, noting that forward-looking indicators such has house prices showed deterioration.
Some experts do however believe that businesses will gain momentum now the Government has laid out concrete plans to tackle the deficit in its Spending Review.
Albert Ellis, CEO of the recruitment consultancy Harvey Nash, told Sky News there would be an initial catch-up in figures before they level out.
He said: "For the next six or 12 months, we'll see further momentum.
"We're optimistic that we will see an absolute growth in the number of jobs."
The GDP figure comes after David Cameron promised business leaders he would ensure "relentless focus on growth" to help fill the hole left by the coalition's austerity measures, expected to cost 490,000 public sector jobs.
Critics doubt the private sector has the capacity Mr Cameron believes it does to take up the slack in the economy.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Saracens confident of signing Gavin Henson


Saracens believe they are not far from signing Wales' two-time Grand Slam winner Gavin Henson from Ospreys.
The 28-year-old trained with the club on Monday in between taking part in BBC's Strictly Come Dancing show.
"We are in a process with Gavin, but we have issues to resolve with the Ospreys and discussions with the BBC," Saracens chief Edward Griffiths told BBC Sport.
"We will have further discussions with Gavin on Tuesday. I don't think we are a million miles away."
Henson, who has filled in at fly-half, full-back and inside centre, has not played rugby for 18 months after going on unpaid leave from his Welsh club.
However, in September, Henson told BBC Sport he wanted to start playing again, but with a London club so that he could be near his children.
"I don't think there is an issue with his physical condition or his desire to play the game," added Griffiths.
"In sport, we all have the same goals, and if Saracens offer him the right environment to rediscover his form it would be good news for Saracens and Welsh rugby with a World Cup coming up.
"We met last week, and Saracens rugby director Brendan Venter asked him why he wanted to play and his first answer was the competitive nature of the game, which you have or don't have.
"Gavin is competitive and wants to win Strictly Come Dancing, and we support him in that. We'll see what happens.
"It's beyond our control. It is a sign of the world we live in, but that's the reality of it."
Henson has won 31 caps for Wales and also toured New Zealand with the 2005 British and Irish Lions.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

G20 agreement unlikely to stop U.S. dollar's downward trend

The G20 may have helped stave off an impending currency war but it’s communiqué is unlikely to interrupt the trade that has dominated financial markets for months — selling the U.S. dollar in favour of riskier assets such as commodities and emerging market stocks.
“I don’t see anything in this that would lead to any change in the environment right now for the U.S. dollar,” said Andrew Busch, global foreign exchange strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago.
“The biggest determinant is clearly the anticipation of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.”
After meetings in Gyeongju, South Korea over the weekend, the G20 called for a move toward “more market determined” exchange rate policies and for countries to refrain from “competitive devaluation.”
While the agreement made clear the possibility of foreign exchange rucktions has moved higher up the agenda and key issues such as, current account positions, protectionism, capital controls all got a mention the language is not tight enough to impose any changes on anybody, according to Thomas Stolper, chief currency strategist at Goldman Sachs in London.
He said the speed of progress towards global rebalancing depends largely on how quickly key Asian countries, such as China, realize there are no other sustainable solutions to their problems other than currency apprication.
“The G20 was surely helpful in this broader process and there is plenty of goodwill, but it was not a great leap either,” Mr. Stolper told clients.
China has been able to stem the yuan’s appreciation to about 2% since promising to introduce more flexibility in June. At the same time, the Fed has sent the dollar sharply lower by suggesting it will undertake quantitative easing or buying up assets in the open market to prop up a weak domestic economy.
The G20’s call for the IMF to play a greater role in the oversight of exchange rates will be met with disappointment from those looking for a change in policy. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s proposal to have countries agree to limit current account imbalances to a specified level was not adopted. Rather, finance ministers and central bank governors said they would agree on guidelines at an indeterminate point.
Despite its many loopholes, the general pledge to avoid competitive devaluation likely reduces the risk of a trade war, according to Gareth Berry, a Singapore-based currency strategist with UBS. As a result, he believes it will be positive for risk appetite, thereby supporting the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Nordic currencies and emerging markets – all at the expense of the greenback.
“Given that this outcome simply reinforces the status quo which has seen trend U.S. dollar depreciation against a range of currencies and the likelihood that there remained some expectation for at least a toughening in rhetoric, this outcome should reinforce downward pressure on the U.S. dollar,” agreed Todd Elmer, head of G-10 currency strategy at Citigroup, in a research note.
The meeting produced little pressure for the United States to back away from its accommodative interest rate and monetary policy stance which has fueled dollar depreciation, a policy German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said was tantamount to currency manipulation.
Nor did it push more strongly for increased flexibility in Asia and it appears to leave an out for some countries, like Japan, to pursue intervention or capital controls, Mr. Elmer noted.
Still Timothy Geithner, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, signaled his optimism that Chinese officials understand a more flexible yuan is in the long-term interest of domestic growth and global economic stability. “I think we’re going to see them continue to move,” he said.
Douglas Borthwick, head of foreign-exchange trading at Stamford, Connecticut-based Faros Trading, agrees that the G20 statement will encourage Asian nations to let their currencies rise, without having to worry they will end up doing so alone, thereby losing a trading edge.
“China and its neighbours see the need to strengthen their currencies,” he said. “Going forward they will all move together and allow their currencies to strengthen, over time resulting in a more balanced economy.”
Still, the dominant theme is foreign exchange markets is likely to remain selling the U.S. dollar as the Fed gets sent to inject billions of dollars more of them in to the U.S. economy in a bid to lower bond yields and keep greasing the wheels of finance. In a world where U.S. dollars are plenty, the value of them falls and other assets look way more attractive.