Gradual Global Recovery Expected for First Quarter 2010

NEW YORK and LONDON, December 16, 2009 - In its quarterly currency and commodity markets forecast, FOREX.com, a division of GAIN Capital Group, LLC, is predicting a gradual global recovery as investors continue to seek returns in risky assets in 1Q 2010.
Chief Currency Strategist for FOREX.com, Brian Dolan, believes that risk sentiment will mostly be in the "on" position throughout the first quarter, but obviously subject to hiccups on data disappointments or credit surprises.
"U.S. dollar weakness is likely to fade as a driving theme, as U.S. data may prove slightly more upbeat than reports out of Europe, the U.K. and Japan. Additionally, marginally higher U.S. market rates may induce further unwinding of short-USD positioning," stated Mr. Dolan in the report. "Overall, we think trading conditions will favor short-term mini-trends and anticipate another target-rich environment as market correlations remain high."
Other first quarter predictions from the report include:

• High unemployment will continue to restrain consumer activity throughout the G10, resulting in further uneven economic data overall

• Currencies that are most likely to outperform are those where growth has returned most solidly and where interested rates are being raised such as AUD, closely followed by the NOK

• The risk of a double dip recession will recede and, as the impact of the fiscal stimulus tapers off, growth in 2010 will likely be slow in much of the G10

The FOREX.com research team also highlights expected ranges for key pairs for the first quarter, such as:

• EUR/USD: 1.4300/1.5000; risk to 1.3800 if below 1.4300
• Gold: 1050/1150; risk to 1250 if above 1150/70

"FOREX.com Markets Outlook" provides commentary and market forecasts with its view of the direction of the world's major currencies as well as key commodities including gold, silver and oil. In addition to Brian Dolan, the report was prepared by UK Research Director Jane Foley and Currency Strategist Jacob Oubina.

About GAIN Capital
GAIN Capital Holdings, Inc. is a global provider of online trading services, specializing in foreign exchange (forex or FX) and contracts for difference (CFDs). Customers and trading partners in more than 140 countries have utilized the company's award-winning trading platform which transacts nearly $200 billion per month.
A pioneer in online forex trading, GAIN Capital operates FOREX.com, one of the largest and best-known brands in the retail forex industry. It also provides execution, clearing, custody and technology products and services to an institutional client base including asset managers, broker/dealers and other financial services firms.
With offices in New York City; Bedminster, New Jersey; London; Seoul; and Tokyo, GAIN Capital and its affiliates are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States, the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in the United Kingdom and the Financial Services Authority (FSA) in Japan.

Balloon boy parents get jail time, tough probation

FORT COLLINS, Colo. – The parents who carried out the balloon boy hoax were sentenced to jail Wednesday and given strict probation conditions that forbid them from earning any money from the spectacle for four years.

Richard Heene was sentenced to 90 days in jail, including 60 days of work release that will let him pursue his job as a construction contractor while serving his time. His wife, Mayumi, was sentenced to 20 days in jail.

Richard Heene choked back tears as he said he was sorry, especially to the rescue workers who chased down false reports that his 6-year-old son had floated away in a balloon on Oct. 15. It was a stunt designed to generate attention for a reality TV show.

"I do want to reiterate that I'm very, very sorry. And I want to apologize to all the rescue workers out there, and the people that got involved in the community. That's it," said Richard Heene, whose wife did not speak at the hearing.

Larimer County District Judge Stephen Schapanski then ordered Heene to begin a 30-day jail term on Jan. 11, delaying the start of the sentence for two weeks so he can spend the holidays with his family. Schapanski allowed Heene to serve the remaining 60 days of his jail term under work release, meaning he can work during the day but spend his nights in jail.

The Heenes' probation will be revoked if they are found to be profiting from any book, TV, movie or other deals related to the stunt.

"This, in simple terms, was an elaborate hoax that was devised by Mr. and Mrs. Heene," the judge said.

The Heenes pleaded guilty to charges that they carried out the balloon hoax, with deals that called for up to 90 days in jail for the husband and 60 days for his wife.

Schapanski ordered Mayumi Heene to serve 20 days in jail after her husband completes his sentence. Her time served is flexible — she can report to jail on 10 weekends, for example — so the children are cared for, the judge said.

Prosecutors asked for the maximum sentence for the husband, saying that a message needs to be sent to promoters who attempt to carry out hoaxes to generate publicity. Chief Deputy District Attorney Andrew Lewis also asked for full restitution to reimburse authorities for the cost of investigating the hoax — an amount that could exceed $50,000.

"People around the world were watching this unfold," he said. "Mr. Heene wasted a lot of manpower and a lot of money in wanting to get himself some publicity."

He added, "Jay Leno said it best when he said, 'This is copycat game.' And people will copycat this event. (The Heenes) need to go to jail so people don't do that."

He portrayed the Heenes as growing increasingly desperate as their pitches for a reality TV show kept getting turned down by networks — and the family fell deeper into a financial hole. Lewis said the Heenes set in motion the balloon hoax in early October as a way to jumpstart the effort and get some attention.

They chose Oct. 15 because the weather was cooperating and the kids were home for school with parent-teacher conferences, allowing the Heenes to report that 6-year-old Falcon had floated away, Lewis said.

Once the parents were brought in for questioning, Richard Heene feigned sleep during the lie-detector test, claiming it was some sort of diabetic episode, Lewis said.

David Lane, Richard Heene's attorney, pleaded for leniency with the judge and said that the couple "have learned a lesson they will never forget for the rest of their lives." He also said that if someone has to go to jail, let it be Richard Heene and not his wife.

"That is his plea. That would be something of a Christmas miracle if that can occur," he said.

Microsoft Word sale prohibited as of Jan. 11, fix promised

Office workers of America, enjoy your Christmas break. Because come the new year, things could get a little hairy around the office. Microsoft Word is now scheduled to be prohibited from sale beginning January 11, 2010. That's less than three weeks away. The good news: Microsoft has promised a fix, one which will be rolled out before the deadline arrives.

If you don't understand, you might have simply missed this story, or dismissed it as something that Microsoft would ultimately use its considerable clout to have pushed under a legal rug.

But it's no joke. In August of this year, a court sided with a small Canadian company called i4i that holds a 1998 patent on the way the XML language is implemented, finding that Microsoft was in violation of that patent. The result: Microsoft was told to license the code in question from i4i or reprogram it, or else Microsoft Word would have to be removed from sale in the market. The original ruling gave Microsoft until October to get its legal affairs in order, but appeals pushed that out a bit.

Now a federal court has upheld that original ruling -- plus a fat, $290 million judgment against the company -- imposing the new January 11 D-Day on the matter. Microsoft Word and Microsoft Office will both be barred from sale as of that date -- though naturally you'll still be able to use copies of Word and Office that you already own, and Microsoft will be allowed to keep supporting those copies.

Unless Microsoft ships the promised technical workaround very quickly, things are going to get extremely dicey in the computer world, and fast. Not only will retail outlets selling shrinkwrapped copies of the software be affected, computer manufacturers (who complained loudly about this injunction when it was announced) who bundle Word and Office on the computers they sell will also be seriously impacted by the ruling.

There's always a chance things will change again as the January 11 deadline approaches, but if your company requires Word or Office to keep operations running, it might not be a bad idea to stock up on a few extra copies now.

Brittany Murphy death cause pending autopsy

According to reports from Los Angeles, the cause of death for Brittany Murphy is not foul play, and there are no suspicions of illicit drug use. The cause of death is pending autopsy results that are being performed today.

So far, the cause of death for Brittany Murphy has been ruled as natural. The actress was reportedly diabetic, and was taking flu medications before she collapsed in the shower, suffering cardiac arrest. She had been vomiting. The cause of death is not completely understood yet, has been ruled "naural", and cardiac arrest is the only finding so far.

Diabetics with flu symptoms are especially vulnerable to complications. Vomiting can be a sign of diabetic complications, or flu-related. Multiple prescription medications were found in the home of Brittany Murphy that included medications for her husband, the actress, and Murphy's mother. Until toxicology and autopsy reports are completed, there can only be speculation as to exactly why Brittany Murphy died at the age of 32.

Diabetes, combined with flu can lead to serious complications. When blood sugar levels rise from illness and fever, dehydration and electrolyte imbalances can occur, which may have played a role in the cause of death for Brittany Murphy. Vomiting can occur as the result of diabetic ketoacidosis. Vomiting is also a symptom of influenza, though the current pandemic has caused mostly respiratory symptoms.

Until an autopsy is completed, the cause of death for Brittany Murphy cannot be known. There are multiple reasons for cardiac arrest in young people. The tragedy of the young actress' demise is no doubt a source of unrest for fans as the cause of Brittany Murphy's death at such a young age.

So far the coroner has ruled the Brittany Murphy cause of death as natural. We only know she died from cardiac arrest at a young age. A final report stating how Brittany Murphy died may take up to eight weeks.

Dubai's financial crisis: a Q&A

Dubai, the gulf emirate that has grown explosively over the last decade, is now at the centre of markets' attention on fears that it could struggle to repay its debt.

Q. Where did Dubai go wrong? I thought it was in the "oil-rich Gulf"?

A. Dubai is part of the United Arab Emirates, seven city-states which have separate ruling families, separate budgets, but security, immigration and foreign policies in common. Abu Dhabi has nearly all the UAE's oil. To keep up, Dubai from the 1950s on diversified its economy into ports, trade, services and finance, largely successfully. But its liquidity-fuelled real estate and tourism binge in the last decade may have been one step too far.

Q. What is the extent of its problems?

A. The emirate has said it has $80bn of debts, though some analysts say the true figure could be double that. Dubai World, the state-owned holding company whose bail-out plans triggered the current crisis, has liabilities of about $60bn, though only part of that is debt. The main problem is its real estate subsidiary Nakheel, which has huge bonds coming due, including an Islamic bond for $3.5bn in December. It appears to have little cash flow to meet payments - as well as relying on debt, it also sold most developments off-plan, with new developments now on hold.

Q. The big market crash after Lehman Brothers folded was more than a year ago. Why has Dubai only just been hit?

A. The property crash hit Dubai at the time - house prices fell 50 pc in six months. Nakheel was known to be in trouble. But investors assumed that as a state-owned company it would not default on its debt. The government refused to issue detailed statements of how it was to handle Dubai World's debt problems, and rounded on those who said that the crash had undermined Dubai's development model.

This encouraged a belief that a rescue package was already in place, probably funded by Abu Dhabi. The statement on Wednesday that the government was asking for a six-month standstill on repayments implied the rescue was in doubt.

Q. Why hasn't Abu Dhabi come to Dubai's aid? It has the world's largest sovereign wealth fund.

A. Abu Dhabi has, via the federal central bank, bought one $10bn bond issued by the Dubai government earlier this year, and, via its own banks, bought another $5bn bond this week. But the latter came with a rider that it was not to be used for the Dubai World bail-out. This raises two questions: what are the other debts for which it is to be used? And how is the Dubai World debt to be met, even after the six-month delay, if Abu Dhabi will not fund the rescue package?

Q. What about other Dubai companies? How are they doing?

A. Dubai World owns DP World, the successful ports operator which bought P&O. Other arms of the Dubai government, and the ruling family's directly owned holding companies, also own successful companies such as Emirates Airlines and Jumeirah Hotels, as well as stakes in buildings and businesses around the world, including the London Stock Exchange. But the emirate's lack of transparency and relatively untested financial legal system means that no-one knows if these can be demanded as collateral against Dubai World and other government debts.

Q. Nevertheless, exposure of western banks to the debt seems quite small compared to the trillions of dollars to which we have become accustomed. Why the panic?

A. At the most basic level, fears that exposed banks will have to write down losses, and that both Dubai and Abu Dhabi may have to sell worldwide assets, has hit prices everywhere. At an "animal spirits" level, the disclosure of significant unforeseen problems in Dubai has refocused attention on where else might have hidden "black holes". The health of sovereign debt worldwide, already seen as the major financial issue for the next decade, is also being reexamined.

Q. Can Dubai survive?

A. Dubai is still seen as the premier place to do business in the Middle East and beyond. It is a preferred base for not just Arab but Pakistani, Iranian and even Indian businesses, due to the wider region's political uncertainty. Its reputation for liberal attitudes helps. But events this week have damaged its reputation for economic competence, which the emirate's rulers will now have to work hard to restore.

Markets crash on Dubai default fears

Dubai is shaking investor confidence across the Persian Gulf after it sought a six-month reprieve on debt payments that risked triggering the biggest sovereign default since Argentina in 2001. The move caused a drop on world markets on Thursday and raised questions about Dubai's reputation as a magnet for international investment.

In Europe, the FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and the CAC-40 in France opened sharply lower. Earlier in Asia, the Shanghai index sank 119 points, or 3.6%, in the biggest one-day fall since August 31. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.8%. Wall Street was closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and most markets in the Middle East were silent because of a major Islamic feast.

Stocks, bonds and currencies fell across developing countries. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks dropped 1.1%, led by declines in China and Russia.

The fallout came swiftly after Wednesday's statement that Dubai's main development engine, Dubai World, would ask creditors for a standstill on paying back its $60 billion debt until at least May. The company's real estate arm, Nakheel -- whose projects include the palm-shaped island in the Gulf -- shoulders the bulk of money due to banks, investment houses and outside development contractors.

In total, the state-backed networks nicknamed Dubai Inc are $80 billion in the red and the emirate needed a bailout earlier this year from its oil-rich neighbour Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

``Nakheel is now standing on the brink of failure given the astonishing amount of cash Dubai would have to inject into it in order to see the enterprise survive,'' said Luis Costa, emerging-market debt strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. ``Events like this are a perfect storm.''

``Dubai's standstill announcement ... was vague and it remains difficult to discern whether the call for a standstill will be voluntary,'' said a statement from the Eurasia Group, a Washington-based research group that assesses political and financial risk

for foreign investors interested in Dubai. ``If it is not, Dubai World will be going into default and that will have more serious negative repercussions for Dubai's sovereign debt, Dubai World and market confidence in the UAE in general,'' the statement added.

``There is nothing investors dislike more than this kind of event,'' said Norval Loftus, the head of convertible bonds and Islamic debt at Matrix Group Ltd. in London, which manages $2.5 billion of assets including Dubai credits. ``The worst-case scenario will of course be involuntary restructuring on the Nakheel security that brings into question the entire nature of the sovereign support for various borrowers in the region.''

Moodys Investors Service and Standard & Poor's cut the ratings on state companies yesterday, saying they may consider state-controlled Dubai World's plan to delay debt payments a default. The sheikhdom, ruled by Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, borrowed $80 billion in a four-year construction boom that reduced its reliance on falling oil supplies and created the region's tourism and financial hub.

``Dubai is the most indicative of the huge global liquidity boom and now in the aftermath there will be further defaults to come in emerging markets and globally,'' said Nick Chamie, head of emerging-market research at Toronto-based RBC Capital Markets.

Famous Forex Quotes

1. “If you get in on Jones’ tip; get out on Jones’ tip”. If you are riding another person’s idea, ride it all the way.
   
   
2. Run early or not at all. Don't be an eleven o'clock bull or a five o'clock bear.
   
   
3. Woodrow Wilson said, "a governments first priority is to organize the common interest against special interests". Successful traders seek out market opportunities capitalizing on the reality that government's first priority is rarely achieved.
   
   
4. People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers.
   
   
5. If you do not know who you are, the market is an expensive place to find out.
   
   
6. Never give advice-the smart don't need it and the stupid don't heed it.
   
   
7. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word-nobody! Thus the successful trader bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
   
   
8. Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
   
   
9. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won't continue long. If it does console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early preserved gains you would otherwise have lost.
   
   
10. When the ship starts to sink, don't pray-jump!
    
    
11. Life never happens in a straight line. Any adult knows this. But we can too easily be hypnotized into forgetting it when contemplating a chart. Beware of the chartist's illusion.
    
    
12. Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
    
    
13. Whatever you do, whether you bet with the herd or against, think it through independently first.
    
    
14. Repeatedly reevaluate your open positions. Keep asking yourself: would I put my money into this if it were presented to me for the first time today? Is this trade progressing toward the ending position I envisioned?
    
    
15. It is a safe bet that the money lost by (short term) speculation is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by those who let their investments "ride". Long term investors are the biggest gamblers as after they make a trade they often times stay with it and end up losing it all. The intelligent trader will . By acting promptly-hold losses to a minimum.
    
    
16. As a rule of thumb good trend lines should touch at least three previous highs or lows. The more points the line catches, the better the line.
    
    
17. Volume and open interest are as important to the technician as price.
    
    
18. The clearest and easiest way to determine a trend is from previous highs and lows. Higher highs and higher lows mark an uptrend, lower highs and lower lows mark a downtrend.
    
    
19. Don't sell a quiet market after a fall because a low volume sell-off is actually a very bullish situation.
    
    
20. Prices are made in the minds of men, not in the soybean field: fear and greed can temporarily drive prices far beyond their so called real value.
    
    
21. When the market breaks through a weekly or monthly high, it is a buy signal. When it breaks through the previous weekly or monthly low, it is a sell signal.
    
    
22. Every sunken ship has a chart.
    
    
23. Take a trading break. A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.
    
    
24. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
    
    
25. The final phase in a bull move is an accelerated runaway near the top. In this phase, the market always makes you believe that you have underestimated the potential bull market. The temptation to continue pyramiding your position is strong as profits have now swelled to the point that you believe your account can stand any setback. It is imperative at this juncture to take profits on your pyramids and reduce the position back to base levels. The base position is then liquidated when it becomes apparent that the move has ended.

Swiss Franc Hits 9-Month High Versus Euro

The Swiss franc, considered a refuge currency, benefited today from a rather risk averse scenario and gained versus several currencies, declining below less than 1.50 line versus the euro for the first time since March. Even if the Swiss currency is at rather considerably high levels, different from the last time it traded below 1.50 against the euro the Swiss National Bank did not intervened, as the outlook for the European single currency remained rather frustrating for another week. EUR/CHF traded at 1.4930 as of 19:41 GMT from a previous rate of 1.5015 yesterday.

Yen Falls on BOJ Low Rates Policy
The Japanese currency fell today versus the 6 main traded currencies in foreign-exchange markets after the nation's financial authority followed the global trend among wealthy nations and ruled out rate hikes for the short-term future, declining attractiveness for the Asian currency. After statements this week in the U.S. and the Eurozone affirming that interest rates will be maintained at very low levels for an extended period of time, this time, in Japan, the national central bank declared that interest rates are likely to remain at the current levels since inflation in the country still did not meet the targets which could provide grounds for a more hawkish monetary policy. The yen dropped versus all of the 16 main traded currencies, and still remains as the first option to fund carry trades, when an investors borrows money at a low cost to inject the capital in higher-yielding positions overseas. The Bank of Japan position following the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve regarding borrowing costs is certainly affecting the yen's outlook, according to analysts. Even if such statements don't show up as a big surprise, the reaction on the yen charts was obviously negative. USD/JPY traded at 90.38 from an intraday rate of 89.94. EUR/JPY rose to 129.59 from 129.20.

The Nobel Peace Prize for 2009

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009 is to be awarded to President Barack Obama for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples. The Committee has attached special importance to Obama's vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.

Obama has as President created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts. The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations. Thanks to Obama's initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting. Democracy and human rights are to be strengthened.

Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world's attention and given its people hope for a better future. His diplomacy is founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world's population.

For 108 years, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has sought to stimulate precisely that international policy and those attitudes for which Obama is now the world's leading spokesman. The Committee endorses Obama's appeal that "Now is the time for all of us to take our share of responsibility for a global response to global challenges."

Oslo, October 9, 2009

US says bin Laden sometimes slips into Afghanistan

Al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden may periodically slip back into Afghanistan from his remote hideout in neighboring Pakistan, a senior White House official says, adding a new twist to the mystery of the elusive terrorist's whereabouts.

President Barack Obama's national security adviser, James Jones, said bin Laden, believed hiding mainly in a rugged area of western Pakistan, may be spending some time in Afghanistan, where he was based while plotting the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.

But Obama's Pentagon chief, Robert Gates, said the U.S. has lacked good intelligence on bin Laden for a long time — "I think it has been years" — and did not confirm that he'd slipped into Afghanistan.

Jones and Gates spoke Sunday on separate TV interview shows as part of an administration effort to explain and defend Obama's new Afghan war strategy, which Gates said includes a focus on preventing al-Qaida from again gaining a foothold inside Afghanistan. A concern is that the Taliban, if permitted to regain power in Kabul, could facilitate a return of al-Qaida's leadership.

The failed hunt for bin Laden has been one of the signature frustrations of the global war on terrorism that former President George W. Bush launched after the Sept. 11 attacks. When U.S. forces ousted the Taliban regime in late 2001, bin Laden fled into Pakistan from his mountain redoubt. Despite being isolated, bin Laden has managed to periodically issue audio messages.

The main explanation given by both the Bush and Obama administrations for not getting bin Laden is that they simply don't know where he is.

"If we did, we'd go get him," Gates said Sunday.

Jones, a retired Marine general, stressed the urgency of targeting bin Laden and spoke of a renewed campaign to capture or kill him.

Asked on CNN's "State of the Union" whether the administration has reliable intelligence on bin Laden's whereabouts, Jones replied, "The best estimate is that he is somewhere in North Waziristan, sometimes on the Pakistani side of the border, sometimes on the Afghan side of the border."

Jones did not comment on the intelligence behind that estimate, nor did he cite a time period or describe more specifically bin Laden's apparent border crossings.

Gates told ABC's "This Week" that "we don't know for a fact where Osama bin Laden is," although he agreed that his likely location is North Waziristan.

That's part of the loosely governed Federally Administered Tribal Areas of northwest Pakistan where the border with Afghanistan is largely unrecognized and unmarked. There is little Pakistani government or military control in this remote region, and militants affiliated with al-Qaida can move freely across the frontier into Afghanistan.

The U.S. has targeted North Waziristan and other areas on the Pakistan side of the border with drone-launched missile strikes, killing substantial numbers of militants as well as Pakistani civilians. The Pakistani army has undertaken an offensive against Taliban militants in South Waziristan but it has not expanded the effort into North Waziristan.

Obama administration officials have often asserted, as did the Bush administration, that they believe bin Laden is being sheltered on the Pakistani side of the border, along with other senior al-Qaida leaders. But Jones broke new ground by saying publicly that the al-Qaida chief may at times have slipped back into Afghanistan.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., made a somewhat similar, if less specific, remark Sunday about bin Laden's movements. He told NBC's "Meet the Press" that knowledgeable people have told him that bin Laden "moves back and forth."

Two Afghan provinces in the country's northeast held particular attraction for bin Laden in the 1990s: Kunar and Nuristan. The towering mountains there hid bin Laden training camps that date back to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. A longtime bin Laden ally, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, holds sway in the area. U.S. troops have targeted Hekmatyar's security chief, Kashmir Khan, in Kunar.

During his years in Afghanistan as a guest of the Taliban, bin Laden operated mainly in the southern region around Kandahar.

Gates said he does not blame a lack of Pakistani cooperation for the absence of intelligence on bin Laden.

"No, I think it's because if, as we suspect, he is in North Waziristan, it is an area that the Pakistani government has not had a presence in, in quite some time," Gates said, adding that although the Pakistani government has its own priorities, any pressure it brings on the Taliban is helpful because it is in league with al-Qaida.

During a visit to Pakistan in late October, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton caused a stir by chiding Pakistani officials for failing to press the hunt for al-Qaida inside their borders. She said she found it "hard to believe" that no one in Islamabad knows where the al-Qaida leaders are hiding and couldn't get them "if they really wanted to."

Donny Osmond Wins 'Dancing With the Stars'

NEW YORK — Donny Osmond was declared the new champion of "Dancing With the Stars" on Tuesday night, taking home the show's mirror ball trophy in the season finale of the ABC contest reality program. Osmond, the former teen pop star of the singing Osmond family, said the show has been a highlight in a career of ups and downs.

"I did it!" Osmond exclaimed. He promptly rushed to the audience and plucked out his wife, Debbie, whom he carried across the stage. Helping push Osmond over the top was his performance Tuesday: an Argentine tango, performed with his professional dancing partner, Kym Johnson. Judge Carrie Ann Inaba hailed it as "artistry in motion." It earned the top score of the final performances Tuesday.

Three celebrities made it to finale of the show's ninth season: Osmond, the singer Mya and Kelly Osbourne, the daughter of Ozzy Osbourne. The show picks a winner with a combination of judges' scores and viewer votes. Mya entered as the favorite, having won the highest scores on Monday's show. Dancing with Dmitry Chaplin, she performed a jive. "I'm just so happy to have made it to the finals," Mya said after the loss. The 30-year-old singer is most famous for collaborating on the Grammy-winning hit "Lady Marmalade" from the soundtrack of 2001's "Moulin Rouge!"

Osbourne was the first of the three eliminated. With her famous family — Ozzy, Sharon and Jack — looking on, Osbourne and professional partner Louis Van Amstel danced to a cover of Ray LaMontagne's "Trouble." The 25-year-old was clearly moved and began crying after her last dance.

She thanked the audience and said she had "grown so much" during the show. Co-host Samantha Harris said Osbourne had become "a swan." The finale culminated a season of good ratings for "Dancing With the Stars," which consistently ranked as one of the most-watched shows of the fall.

The contestant who grabbed the most headlines, former Congressman Tom DeLay, had to withdraw in the third week of competition because of stress fractures in both feet. A healed DeLay returned Tuesday night to dance the Texas two-step routine he had hoped to perform. All the former contestants returned, including former Dallas Cowboys receiver Michael Irvin. Waltzing to the theme of "Monday Night Football," he performed a dance-off with another NFL receiving great: Jerry Rice, a contestant on the second season of "Dancing With the Stars." The judges declared Rice the winner.

Pop singer Aaron Carter, voted off this season, performed a dance to the theme of "The Muppet Show." Animal took the drums, while Miss Piggy lurked backstage. Mistakes on the dance floor weren't the only missteps of ABC's live broadcast. At the top of the show, as highlights from Monday's show ran, the video froze on shot of Miss Piggy, prompting host Tom Bergeron to remind viewers that the broadcast was live — and send the show to an early commercial break.

Whitney Houston also made a guest appearance to perform her "Million Dollar Bill" and the fitting "I Wanna Dance With Somebody." The gymnast Shawn Johnson won last season's "Dancing With the Stars."

Michelle Obama goes glam for state dinner (with a dress by little-known designer Naeem Khan)

Looking glamorous in an elegant strapless gown by Indian-American designer Naeem Khan, Michelle Obama welcomed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his wife Mrs. Gursharan Kaur to the White House Tuesday night and ushered in the Obama administration's first official state dinner.

Though she's become known for her (sometimes controversial) high-fashion risk-taking, tonight Mrs.Obama chose a dress with a classic floor-length cut in a subdued gold fabric and paired it with a light shawl. Her makeup was kept to a minimum and her hair done in a dignified updo. The entire ensemble seemed traditionally feminine and sophisticated, reminiscent of the first lady's more conservative predecessors.
But there were a few Michelle-style flourishes, including a pair of elaborate chandelier earrings and a stack of glittering gold-and-diamond bangles piled high on her left arm. Her choice of Khan as designer is also characteristic of this first lady, who often favors little-known artisans over big names. Khan has been on the fashion scene since 2003, and has outfitted youthful celebrities such as Beyoncé, Carrie Underwood, and Jennifer Lopez. He has also dressed dignitaries like Queen Noor and designed the costumes for the 2006 movie "Dreamgirls."
Tonight's look may mark a sartorial departure for Mrs. Obama, a shift into more sophisticated, luxurious, and regal attire, rather than the playful, accessible, less-polished clothing she's worn thus far.
It will also mean a big shift in popularity and business for Naeem Khan, who--like the first lady's favorite designer before him, Jason Wu--is more than likely about to become one of the most-searched and sought-after names in the business.

A.R. Rahman, Jennifer Hudson headline state dinner

WASHINGTON – It's an all-star lineup for Tuesday's first state dinner of the Obama White House: Oscar-winners Jennifer Hudson and A.R. Rahman headline the entertainment list.

Hudson won an Academy Award for her role in the movie "Dreamgirls." Rahman won two for music in "Slumdog Millionaire," including the Best Original Song award for "Jai Ho."

Also performing: Kurt Elling, a Grammy-winning jazz singer and composer, and the National Symphony Orchestra, with Marvin Hamlisch conducting.

The dinner for Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (MAHN'-moh-hahn SING) will be in a tent on the White House South Lawn. Guests will dine at tables for 10 with apple-green linens. Deep purple flowers are meant to evoke the state bird of India, the peacock.

Oprah's TV Pilot Deal With HBO

We told you Oprah Winfrey wouldn't disappear.

Oprah rocked the nation last week when she announced that she'll pull the plug on The Oprah Winfrey Show in September 2011. We had a hunch Ms. Winfrey had some things in the works, and it's confirmed. In addition to the official plans for the Oprah Winfrey Network (OWN) to launch in 2011, a report emerged on Monday that Oprah and HBO are teaming up.

This may be a TV marriage stranger than Khloe Kardashian's, but it sounds like it could work. Oprah's studio Harpo and HBO are planning a pilot for an hour-long series on a woman who one day up and leaves her husband and children to pursue her dreams. The plot seems a little Desperate Housewives and left-field -- her family thinks she's been kidnapped? -- but with Harpo and HBO at the helm we can be pretty sure it'll fly.

Here's what president of HBO Sue Naegle had to offer: "[The show] is unsentimental and pretty shocking, and there is something complicated and destructive driving her ... It is literally a day at the pool, where she gets up, in sarong and flip-flops, and walks out of her life, leaving everyone behind so abruptly that her husband and kids initially think she's been kidnapped or murdered."

Interview Exclusive: Samantha Harris of 'Dancing With the Stars'

Samantha Harris shares the secrets of her transformation into a "ballroom princess."

Busy women will get this: we have careers, homes, jobs, kids, appointments, workouts, and now...the holidays. How are we supposed to manage it all and still feel good?

Dancing With the Stars co-host Samantha Harris knows the struggle. The alpha-female who turns 36 this week holds down a gig with the number-one reality show in America and is a host and correspondent on CBS' The Insider. She's also a wife to financial wholesaler Michael Hess, as well as a mom to busy two-year-old Josselyn. For Harris to keep up her workout routine through her pregnancy was a must for her high-profile TV gig...and for her peace of mind. She now has one of the most coveted bods on TV, and when the women heard we were talking to Samantha Harris they wanted to know one thing: "How does she always look so amazing?!"

While prepping for Dancing With the Stars to go live ("I can give you a good fifteen minutes!" she said while noshing on a barbecue chicken salad in the makeup chair) Samantha Harris kindly revealed her banging body tricks (including - aha! - lots of sculpting for those killer arms).

LimeLife: Samantha, the first thing everybody wants to know about you is this: how do you maintain such awesome shape?

Samantha Harris: Oh, thank you! Basically, pre-pregnancy, I was very dedicated to my workouts anyhow -- they'd always been an important part of my life. So I was working out a solid four to six days a week for an hour a day before I had Josselyn, and I think muscle memory comes into play a lot when you're trying to get back in shape post-baby. But I think it also really helped that I the good fortune of having a very good pregnancy where I wasn't sick. I was able to maintain my workouts throughout the majority of my pregnancy. I kept up with the same activities that I was doing pre-pregnancy, just with a heart rate monitor and a slightly lower intensity under supervision of my doctor. So I felt really great and I think that really helped.

LimeLife: So then during your pregnancy, what was your attitude toward your diet?

Samantha Harris: During the pregnancy I tried not to overindulge. I think our society has taught us that we can eat for two, and I think that's an unfortunate bit of misinformation that's been passed down from generation to generation. I really maintained a similar diet to what I had pre-pregnancy. The only thing I really changed was eating within the first hour of waking up because I was always a late-morning breakfast person and I usually would go a few hours before I would actually have a meal. I think that was the biggest change as well as the occasional slight nausea I had in the first trimester.

LimeLife: Then can you share with us some of the not-so-disciplined choices you might allow yourself to make every now and again?

Samantha Harris: (laughs) I am a huge dessert fantatic, and I will eat something sweet every single day. So to me that means that I have to balance that somehow. I make choices like egg-white omelettes and lean chicken breasts and brown rice and salad with lower-calorie dressing; no cheese, no red meat. You can find your own [food habits] that you feel okay giving up.

Love it when the Dancing With the Stars stars get personal? Finalist Kym Johnson recently spoke with us about life offstage and working with Donny Osmond - check Kym out here! Plus, check back tomorrow when Samantha Harris shares a behind-the-scenes look at life when she's not in front of the Dancing With the Stars camera.

Black Friday deals have gamers grinning

Thanksgiving's almost here, and with it comes what's by far the biggest shopping day of the year -- Black Friday. But before you set your alarm clock, pack your sandwiches, and head out to tackle the crowds, get educated. We've boiled the week's ads down into the most tempting deals for gamers -- and for those shopping for them.

This year, retailers are favoring console bundle deals over straight price cuts, and there are some seriously tempting packages out there, like Walmart's PS3 offer that throws in top superhero games Infamous and Batman: Arkham Asylum -- plus The Dark Knight on Blu-Ray -- for the same $299 the base console costs. That's a savings of nearly $150.

On the games front, most major retailers are slashing prices on even the newest of releases. Dragon Age: Origins -- released just two weeks ago -- will be on sale for $34.99 at Best Buy, a $15 saving, and it's by no means the only bargain. Smash hit The Sims 3 will be available at several stores for under $30, while Rock Band (complete with guitar, mic, and drums) can be rocked for an astounding $50 at Walmart.

Read on for our picks of the best deals from each store, but there are lots more. Check www.blackfriday.info for complete details.

Over 100 icebergs drifting to N.Zealand: official

SYDNEY (AFP) – More than 100, and possibly hundreds, of Antarctic icebergs are floating towards New Zealand in a rare event which has prompted a shipping warning, officials said on Monday.

An Australian Antarctic Division glaciologist said the ice chunks, spotted by satellite photography, had passed the Auckland Islands and were heading towards the main South Island, about 450 kilometres (280 miles) northeast.

Scientist Neal Young said more than 100 icebergs -- some measuring more than 200 metres (650 feet) across -- were seen in just one cluster, indicating there could be hundreds more.

He said they were the remains of a massive ice floe which split from the Antarctic as sea and air temperatures rise due to global warming.

"All of these have come from a larger one that was probably 30 square kilometres (11.6 square miles) in size when it left Antarctica," Young told AFP.

"It's done a long circuit around Antarctica and now the bigger parts of it are breaking up and producing smaller ones."

He said large numbers of icebergs had not floated this close to New Zealand since 2006, when a number came within 25 kilometres of the coastline -- the first such sighting since 1931.

"They're following the same tracks now up towards New Zealand. Whether they make it up to the South Island or not is difficult to tell," Young said.

New Zealand has already issued coastal navigation warnings for the area in the Southern Ocean where the icebergs have been seen.

"It's really just a general warning for shipping in that area to be on the alert for icebergs," said Maritime New Zealand spokesman Ross Henderson.

The icebergs are smaller remnants of the giant chunks seen off Australia's Macquarie Island this month, including one estimated at two kilometres (1.2 miles) and another twice the size of Beijing's "Bird's Nest" Olympic Stadium.

Young earlier told AFP he expected to see more icebergs in the area if the Earth's temperature continues to increase.

"If the current trends in global warming were to continue I would anticipate seeing more icebergs and the large ice shelves breaking up," he said.

When icebergs last neared New Zealand in 2006, a sheep was helicoptered out to be shorn on one of the floes in a publicity stunt by the country's wool industry.

Tween Justin Bieber fans lose control at NY mall

New York police shut down a mall appearance by teen pop singer Justin Bieber (BEE'-ber) after thousands of young girls showed up and got a little too wild.

Nassau County police say girls and adults in the crowd of nearly 3,000 started pushing and shoving as they waited for the 15-year-old sensation to arrive Friday at the Roosevelt Field Mall in Garden City.

Five people were taken to hospitals with minor injuries.

Police arrested a vice president from Bieber's record label, Island Def Jam Records. They say he wasn't cooperating with attempts to disperse the crowd.

Some fans had camped out overnight for the event.

Bieber never made it into the building. He told WBLI radio that police turned him away.

Bieber's debut album, "My World," was released Tuesday.

Palin angered by 'sexist' Newsweek cover

For the second time since Sarah Palin stepped into the national political spotlight, a photo of the former Republican vice-presidential candidate featured on the cover of Newsweek magazine is sparking controversy. Palin herself blasted the "out-of-context" cover as "sexist" on her Facebook page.

Originally published in the August 2009 issue of Runners World, the photo features the former Alaska governor in short runner's shorts. It was part of a multi-photograph slideshow that accompanied an article about Palin and her love for the sport titled, "I'm A Runner." In her Facebook post late last night, Palin took issue with Newsweek using a photo from an article about health and fitness to promote an analysis piece contemplating her relevance as a political figure:

"The choice of photo for the cover of this week's Newsweek is unfortunate. When it comes to Sarah Palin, this "news" magazine has relished focusing on the irrelevant rather than the relevant. The Runner's World magazine one-page profile for which this photo was taken was all about health and fitness -- a subject to which I am devoted and which is critically important to this nation. The out-of-context Newsweek approach is sexist and oh-so-expected by now. If anyone can learn anything from it: it shows why you shouldn't judge a book by its cover, gender, or color of skin. The media will do anything to draw attention -- even if out of context.

The reaction to the Newsweek cover has predictably sparked outrage from conservative supporters of Palin and kudos from liberals who oppose her. CBN commentator David Brady called the cover "a new low" for the "biased" magazine, adding that Newsweek has a history of portraying liberal women as "heroes for the next generation," while portraying conservative women like Palin as "nuts and dopey." Meanwhile, documentary photographer Nina Berman hailed the cover as "brilliant" and "shrewd" for using a "propped photo where Palin is an obvious participant ... to show how far out she is willing to travel on the road of self promotion" while "shield[ing] themselves from what would have been the inevitable criticism if they had dolled her up themselves and posed her the same way."

The current cover flap isn't the first time Newsweek has generated controversy with a photograph of Palin. The October 13, 2008, issue featured an extreme close-up of Palin that seemed to be devoid of the high-tech retouching often employed by magazines. Conservatives claimed this highlighted some of Palin's supposed "flaws," like wrinkles around her eyes.

Newsweek Editor Jon Meacham told Yahoo! News that the photo choice was simply the "most interesting image available":

"We chose the most interesting image available to us to illustrate the theme of the cover, which is what we always try to do. We apply the same test to photographs of any public figure, male or female: does the image convey what we are saying? That is a gender-neutral standard."

Byrd becomes longest-serving Congress member

WASHINGTON – The Senate is marking a new milestone Wednesday when West Virginia Sen. Robert C. Byrd becomes the longest-serving lawmaker in congressional history.

"I look forward to serving you for the next 56 years and 320 days," Byrd said in a statement marking the occasion. His only regret, Byrd said, was that his late wife, Erma, was not there with him.

"I know that she is looking down from the heavens smiling at me and saying congratulations, my dear Robert — but don't let it go to your head," Byrd said.

It was unclear whether Byrd would be able to attend Wednesday's session.

Setting records is old news to the white-maned Democratic lawmaker. Since June 12, 2006, Byrd has been the longest-serving senator and later that year he was elected to an unprecedented ninth term. His colleagues have elected him to more leadership positions than any senator in history. He has cast more than 18,000 votes and, despite fragile health that has kept him from the Senate floor during much of this year, has a nearly 98 percent attendance record over the course of his career.

Which, by Byrd's count, has spanned 20,774 days. On Tuesday, Byrd's service tied the record set by Carl Hayden, D-Ariz., who served in the House, then the Senate, from 1912 to 1969.

The arc of Byrd's story is more complex than the numbers would suggest. It's been long enough for him to rescind positions that he once trumpeted, such as his opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. Lengthy enough to voice his regret, over and over, about joining the Ku Klux Klan a lifetime ago. Long enough to see and cheer the nation's first black president and to watch his one-time rival and later dear friend, Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., succumb to brain cancer.

He's a champion of "earmarks" — pet project spending that critics also call "pork." He's helped bring home to West Virginia $326 million for 2008 alone, according to Citizens Against Government Waste.

Byrd's also been around enough to confound a monthslong whispering campaign that he was not well enough to continue serving as chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. He stepped down only when he was ready but still chairs the panel's homeland security subcommittee. In October, after a season of illness and absence, Byrd personally managed a $44.1 billion spending agreement on security measures against natural disaster, terrorist attacks and other threats.

Friday is his 92nd birthday. And next week, Byrd writes in his weekly column, should be about Thanksgiving.

What does he give thanks for this year?

The privilege, he writes, of representing "our great people in the United States Senate."

Longer, of course, than anyone else.

US adult smoking rate rises slightly

ATLANTA – Cigarette smoking rose slightly for the first time in almost 15 years, dashing health officials' hopes that the U.S. smoking rate had moved permanently below 20 percent.

A little under 21 percent of Americans were current cigarette smokers, according to a 2008 national survey by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's up slightly from the year before, when just 19.8 percent said they were smoking. It also is the first increase in adult smoking since 1994, experts noted.

The increase was so small, it could be just a blip, so health officials and experts say smoking prevalence is flat, not rising. But they are unhappy.

"Clearly, we've hit a wall in reducing adult smoking," said Vince Willmore, spokesman for the Campaign for tobacco-Free Kids, a Washington, D.C.- based research and advocacy organization.

There's a general perception that smoking is a dying public health danger. Feeding that perception are indoor smoking laws, cigarette taxes and Congress's recent decision to allow the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to regulate tobacco.

But health officials believe gains have been undermined by cuts in state tobacco control campaigns. Also, the tobacco industry has been discounting cigarettes to offset tax increases and keep smokes affordable, Willmore said, citing tobacco industry sales data.

The adult smoking rate has been dropping, in starts and stops, since the mid-1960s when roughly 2 out of 5 U.S. adults smoked. Now it's 1 in 5. However, federal health goals for the year 2010 had hoped to bring the rate down to close to 1 in 10.

Adult smoking hovered at about 21 percent from 2004 to 2006, then dropped a full percentage point in 2007, said Dr. Matthew McKenna, director of the CDC's Office on Smoking and Health.

The 2007 drop gave CDC officials hope that U.S. smoking was plummeting again. "Now that appears to be a statistical aberration," McKenna said.

The new survey's results come from in-person interviews of nearly 22,000 U.S. adults.

The study was released Thursday, published in the CDC publication, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

Also on Thursday, the CDC released state-by-state results on smoking from a different survey, conducted by telephone, of more than 400,000 adults. West Virginia and Indiana had the highest smoking rates, at about 26 percent, but four other states — Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma and Tennessee — had rates about as high.

Utah had, by far, the lowest smoking rate, with only about 9 percent of Utah residents describing themselves as current smokers.

Many of the states that have the lowest smoking rates are those that have been the most aggressive about indoor smoking laws and about state taxes that drive up the cost of cigarettes, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, the CDC's director.

Health officials are optimistic that more and more smokers will be discouraged from lighting up by escalating cigarette taxes, including a 62-cent federal tax that took effect in April. Perhaps the recession will have an impact, too.

"In general, when people have less money, they smoke less," Frieden said. "Time will tell."

Zardari allegedly made big money in sub-marine sale

PARIS: Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is suspected of having received millions of dollars in kickbacks from the 1994 sale of three French submarines to the Pakistani Navy, a French daily reported.

In addition, investigators believe that the non-payment of the full amount of the agreed kickbacks may have led to the deaths of 11 French nationals in a 2002 terror attack in the city of Karachi.

The report says the French daily acquired documents that allegedly show that Zardari received 4.3 million dollars in kickbacks from the sale of three Agosta 90 submarines for 825 million euros (currently 1.237 billion dollars).

The documents were sent to the Pakistani National Accountability Bureau (NAB) by British authorities in April 2001 and indicate that Zardari received several large payments into his Swiss bank accounts from a Lebanese businessman, Abdulrahman el-Assir, in 1994 and 1995.

According to a former executive of the French naval defence company DCN, French authorities chose el-Assir to act as intermediary in the deal. He allegedly deposited a total of 1.3 million dollars in Zardari’s bank accounts between August 15 and 30, 1994, one month before the submarine contract was signed, and then 1.2 million dollars and 1.8 million dollars one year later.

According to DCN employees who testified in the terror attack investigation, the kickbacks to Pakistan in the deal totalled 10 per cent of the purchase amount, with 6 per cent, or 49.5 million dollars, going to the military and 4 per cent, or 33 million euros, being funneled to political circles.

Top 15 Franchise Failures

The recession has hit franchise owners particularly hard, with the Small Business Administration (SBA) reporting record loan default rates for 2008-2009. According to the SBA, individuals who took on SBA loans to finance a franchise had a 43% higher failure rate than in 2007. In total, those franchise losses cost the SBA $93.3 million last year - nearly 170% higher than the year before. Since 2004, franchise loan defaults have increased by nearly 10% (from 3.1% to 13.4%), highlighting that franchise owners have had an increasingly difficult time making a successful go of their new ventures. Sorting through the 2009 Franchise Coleman Report we were able to determine the franchises that had the highest SBA loan failure rates in 2008.

1. Noble Roman's Pizza

Billing itself as "The Better Pizza People," this Indianapolis-based franchiser has had a tough time selling that proposition to customers. While the company reported a 30% net income increase in Q1 of 2009, Q2 total revenues were down more than $500,000 from the comparable period in 2008. Maybe that's why 53% of all owners with SBA loans defaulted in 2008.

2. PJ's Coffee and Tea Café

PJ's Coffee and Tea Café started out as a small business in New Orleans 30 years ago and only recently began selling franchise rights across the south, southeast and southwest. It might want to stick to Cajun country - 50% of the franchisees failed on their SBA loans last year.

3. Super Suppers

At the height of the market, working families expanded their spending to include luxuries such as cleaning services, lawn services and even assemble-your-own dinner services. Super Suppers jumped on the concept and its franchise growth was exponential between 2005 (40), to 2006 (152), and 2007 (206). However, the growth stalled with no new franchise owners coming on board in 2008, and existing owners with SBA loans began failing at a quick pace - 42%, to be exact, in 2008.

4. Figaro's Italian Pizza

Figaro's has been in business for 28 years, but most of its franchise owners aren't likely to reach that same anniversary. One-third defaulted on their loans, unable to grab enough of the industry's $32 billion in annual revenues.

5. New York NY Fresh Deli

Perhaps it was the low single-site franchise fee ($17,500) that attracted new business owners, but it was low revenues that led to closed doors. Thirty-one per cent defaulted on SBA loans in '08.

6. Amazon Café

This franchiser offers smoothies, wraps, salads, soups, juices and more, but apparently not enough more to keep all operators in business. Thirty per cent failed in 2008, and more than 52% have defaulted on their SBA loans since 2000.

7. Simple Simon's Pizza

Simple Simon's grew from one store in Tulsa to a network of 220 restaurants nationwide since 1982. However, nearly 30% of store owners who took on an SBA loan to finance the start-up have defaulted. Perhaps selling pizza isn't quite so simple after all.

8. Snip-Its

The Snip-Its children's hair salons ranked 30th on the Franchise Times' 2007 list of 55 fastest growing franchises, but two years later that growth has stalled. Thirty per cent of store owners with SBA financing failed to repay their loans in 2008.

9. U Build It

Seeking to grab a share of the market that made Lowe's and Home Depot household names the U Build It franchise offers owners an opportunity to serve as "construction consultants" for DIYers interested in building or renovating their own homes. But when the housing market collapsed, it shouldn't come as a shock that 27% of their franchisees reneged on their SBA loans.

10. Bellacino's Pizza

If you're a Facebook user, you can become a Bellacino's Pizza "fan." Unfortunately 26% of Bellacino's owners that took on SBA financing couldn't get enough regular fans to stay current on their debt payments. That number closes in on 30% dating back to 2000.

11. Blockbuster Video

While Blockbuster was able to fend off brick and mortar competitors, it has struggled to maintain market share since Netflix and Redbox changed the rules of the game. In 2008, one in four store owners with SBA loans failed to repay their debt; that number jumps to a sobering 38% since 2000.

12. Pizza Factory

If this list proves anything, it should be that entrepreneurs might do well to avoid pizza franchises. Twenty-four per cent of Pizza Factory owners took a pass on repaying their SBA loans in 2008, and that number jumps to 43% if you look back to 2000.

13. Pro Golf

With a rising unemployment rate, workers aren't knocking off early to hit the links. Perhaps that's what led to 24% of Pro Golf franchise owners defaulting on their SBA loans. But the fact that 64% of all owners have failed to repay their loans since 2000 makes you think that perhaps the business model is the real news, not the recession.

14. Conoco Service Station

While ConocoPhillips Company is a Fortune 500 company, its service center franchise owners (more than 3,100 operate under the Conoco, Phillips 66 and Union 76 brands) are struggling. More than one in five (22%) have defaulted on their SBA financing commitment.

15. Keva Juice

Keva's product isn't a "blendsation" everywhere. Twenty-two per cent of these smoothie store owners didn't raise enough revenue to repay their SBA loans last year; more than one in four (26%) have defaulted on their loans since 2000.

Conclusion

The moral of this story? If you're going to take on an SBA loan to finance your franchise, take a close look at which fellow entrepreneurs failed before you face the same fate.