Election 2010: Labour slumps to six month low in latest ICM poll

Labour's election campaign suffers a fresh blow with support for the party slumping to its lowest level for six months, a new ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph has found.In the latest Sunday Telegraph/ICM opinion poll, the Conservatives are up two points on 35 per cent, the Liberal Democrats are up one on 31 per cent while Labour is down two on 26 per cent – compared with the last poll by ICM last week.

While giving the Tories a clear lead, the poll shows that they are still well short of where they need to be to win an overall majority.

With less than two weeks to go before 6 May, the figures also suggest the Lib Dem bubble has not burst. All respondents were polled after the second televised election debate between the three main party leaders last Thursday.

If the figures were repeated on polling day, they would give the Conservatives 284 seats, Labour 232, and the Lib Dems 102 seats. The Conservatives would be the largest party but still 42 seats short of a majority.

Labour and Liberal Democrats would be able to form a majority coalition – but only just.

The Tories will also be buoyed by the fact that the Liberal Democrat vote is less solid than the other parties. Only 56 per cent of Lib Dems say they have definitely decided to vote, compared with 78 per cent of Tories and 74 per cent of Labour.

The Lib Dems are attracting the most support among 18-34 year-olds.

Asked who would make the best economic team, 30 per cent voters picked David Cameron and George Osborne, while 27 per cent picked Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling and 22 per cent picked Nick Clegg and Vince Cable.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde university, said: "The Prime Minister is in danger of leading his party to its worst electoral defeat since 1918. At 26 per cent, the party’s poll rating is even less than the 28 per cent it secured under Michael Foot’s leadership in 1983.

"It seems unlikely Mr Brown would survive long as Labour leader should such an outcome occur on May 6th. Only the vagaries of the electoral system potentially stand between Labour and complete disaster."

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1020 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 23rd April 2010. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults.